Macroeconomic development according to OECD

Sweden, Norway and Denmark: Economic growth in the region was very good in 2006 and is expected to continue in 2007 and 2008. Consumer spending is also expected to rise, especially in Norway and Sweden. In Denmark and Sweden, indebtedness has increased signifi cantly. All countries show signs of higher inflation and therefore higher long-term interest rates, which may impact household finances moving forward.

Netherlands, Belgium and Germany: After a year of good growth, Belgium will see a smaller increase in 2007 and 2008. Growth is supported by consumer spending. In Germany, the economy picked up speed in 2006, but growth will level off slightly in 2007. Thanks to higher consumer spending, growth is expected to
again accelerate in 2008. In the Netherlands, the economy will continue to recover; in 2006 growth was 3 percent. A strong labor market will lead to higher consumer spending, but at a slower rate than the GDP.

Switzerland, Austria and Italy: After more than four years of stagnation, Italy has entered a recovery stage. Consumer spending is expected to increase in 2008. The Austrian and Swiss economies developed well in 2006, but forecasts point to slower growth in 2007 and 2008. Consumer spending is essentially stagnant and remains below GDP growth.

France, Spain and Portugal: Spain's strong economic growth in recent years is starting to slow slightly. Consumer spending is not declining to the same extent. In France, growth was modest in 2006 and will rise slightly in both 2007 and 2008. Consumer spending is driving development. The Portuguese economy has found growth diffi cult, but in 2006 did grow slightly. Exports, rather than domestic spending, are driving the economy.

Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania: The Finnish economy grew very strongly in 2006, but will slow significantly in 2007 and 2008. Consumer spending is following much the same pattern. Debt levels in Finland have not risen as substantially as in many other European countries.Strong economic growth in the Baltic countries is largely being driven by consumer spending, which in turn is mainly financed by higher household
indebtedness.

United Kingdom and Ireland: Economic development in the UK in 2006 was in line with the average for the euro zone. Consumer spending was higher, however. In 2006 Ireland reported strong economic growth, which is expected to continue in 2007 and 2008. Development has been driven by a substantial increase in consumer spending. Indebtedness has increased signifi cantly in both the UK and Ireland in the last ten years.

Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary: In the Czech Republic and Hungary, growth will decline in 2007 and 2008 compared with 2006. In Poland, growth will remain at about the same level as in 2006, about 5 percent. In Slovakia, the GDP rose by over 8 percent in 2006 and is expected to remain at about the same level in 2007 before leveling off in 2008. In all the countries except Hungary, consumer spending is the driving factor behind economic development.

Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 80

DEFINITIONS

Level of outsourcing = Share of the total market that is outsourced to third parties, .e.g., collection firms.

Market growth rate = Assumed growth in the market's total sales.

Operating earnings (EBIT) = Earnings before net financial items and income tax.

Operating margin = Operating earnings as a percentage of revenues.

PP = Percentage points.

Revenues = A company's or organization's total sales.