Economy in Focus #14 - Bracing for impact: Europe in a new trade era

From policy unpredictability to market volatility, what lies ahead for Europe? Expert commentary from Senior Economist Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov outlines two potential scenarios for Europe’s economic trajectory. The 14th edition was published May 2025.

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The impact of US tariffs on Europe

The return of US protectionism is reshaping global trade. New tariffs are disrupting supply chains, fuelling uncertainty, and putting pressure on Europe’s export-driven economies.

Who is most exposed – and why

Germany, Italy, the UK and Ireland are directly affected, while countries like Czechia and Hungary face indirect risks. Automotive, pharma and manufacturing sectors are particularly vulnerable.

Two paths forward - what does it mean for late payments?

The white paper outlines two scenarios: a gradual de-escalation with manageable disruption, or a full-scale trade war triggering recession, job losses, and rising defaults.

Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, Senior Economist at Intrum

Comment from Intrum's Senior Economist:

"Geopolitical and policy uncertainty is slowing euro area recovery. While gradual de-escalation remains the baseline, damage is done—and businesses must brace for ongoing challenges. A severe trade war and global recession, though less likely, cannot be ruled out."

Rising trade tensions and geopolitical risk

Aggressive trade policies by US administration have reignited global uncertainty. Tariffs targeting China and other key trade partners are reshaping the international economic landscape and fuelling market volatility. Some economies and industries are more vulnerable than others. Export-heavy countries and sectors like automotive, pharma, and machinery face the greatest risks, while Central and Eastern Europe could suffer knock-on effects through supply chains.

Persistent late payments and financial strain

Despite positive revenue trends in 2024, the latest European Payment Report 2025 note that businesses continue to face delayed payments and cash flow challenges. High interest rates, elevated risk, and economic uncertainty are making collections more difficult and amplifying pressure on SMEs in particular. As potential trade wars are disrupting supply chains, fuelling uncertainty, this putts pressure on Europe’s export-driven economies.

How to meet a volatile global trade landscape?

Download the Economy in Focus #14

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Previous editions of Economy in Focus:

Economy in Focus #13 - 2025 outlook: Triumph or turmoil?

What key trends is shaping the macroeconomic landscape in Europe as we move into 2025? From central banks managing interest rate cuts to governments implementing fiscal tightening and the increasing influence of geopolitical uncertainty, the year ahead presents a complex economic picture. The potential for both growth and disruption highlights the importance of strategic planning in a rapidly evolving global economy.

Economy in Focus #12 - 2024 year-in-review: The tides are turning

Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, reflects on the key trends that have shaped the macroeconomic landscape in Europe throughout 2024. From central banks navigating interest rate cuts to an uneven economic recovery and the recalibration of artificial intelligence (AI) investments, this year has underscored the complexities of restoring stability in a rapidly evolving world.

Economy in Focus #11 - The state of corporate and household credit in the EU

In the latest edition of Economy in Focus, Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, delivers key insights into the pressing issues surrounding corporate and household indebtedness in the EU.

Economy in Focus #10 - AI’s impact on macroeconomy

In the 10th edition of Economy in Focus, discover how Generative AI is revolutionising productivity and reshaping global economic landscapes. This in-depth report explores the transformative potential of AI technologies, their impact on markets, and the challenges they bring. Published in June 2024.

Economy in Focus #9 - Household savings and investments in a new age

In the 9th edition of Economy in Focus, Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, explores how European household savings and investment patterns are shifting in a post-pandemic world. This report was published in April 2024.

Economy in Focus # 8 - 2024 outlook: What to expect and prepare for

In the 8th edition of Economy in Focus, Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, offers a detailed outlook on the economic challenges and opportunities expected in 2024. This report, published in January 2024, examines inflation, credit tightening, and recovery scenarios.

Economy in Focus #7 - 2023 in Review – An economic potpourri

In the 7th edition of Economy in Focus, Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, reviews the economic challenges and developments of 2023. The report highlights inflation, property market declines, and regulatory changes. Published in December 2023.

Economy in Focus #6 - NPLs: A Decade-Long European Headache

In the 6th edition of Economy in Focus, Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, delves into the decade-long challenge of non-performing loans (NPLs) across Europe. This report explores the impacts of NPLs on the European economy and the strategies for addressing them. Published in September 2023.

Economy in Focus #5 – Four key challenges that European companies face

In the 5th edition of Economy in Focus, Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, examines the four key challenges that European companies face, including revenue disruptions, inflation fears, wage-setting struggles, and cost-cutting measures. Published in June 2023.

Economy in Focus #4 – Employment remains strong in Europe

In the 4th edition of Economy in Focus, Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, discusses Europe’s resilient labour market amidst economic challenges. The report highlights stable employment, falling real wages, and rising consumer confidence. Published in April 2023.

Economy in Focus #3 – Downturn on the housing market

In the 3rd edition of Economy in Focus, Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, provides insights into the downturn in Europe’s housing market, with a particular focus on the impact of rising interest rates on household debt. Published in February 2023.

Economy in Focus #2 – Generation X worst off

In the 2nd edition of Economy in Focus, Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, explores the record-low consumer confidence in Europe, the impact of rising inflation, and how Generation X is most affected. Published in December 2022.

Economy in Focus #1 – Inflation reaches highest level in decades

In the 1st edition of Economy in Focus, Intrum’s Senior Economist, Anna Zabrodzka-Averianov, discusses the record-high inflation levels across Europe, the sharp rise in energy prices, and the impact on consumer confidence. Published in September 2022.

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